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How to Backtest a Program

Here is how to backtest any of my programs. This technique applies to all programs.  I suggest that you have a printout of the results of your state for the last 2 months in front of you before you start this. If you are tracking the daily results on an Excel tracking sheet, that would be perfect. Just create a copy of your sheet and in the copy you only need  4 rows; date, actual number that hit (say 951) the number in box form (159) and a row where you write HIT if you got a hit. 

This is what I did to find out that the 3-way list hits the most in the 4-Way program (the 3-way list actually hit last night in New York again).
 
Go back 2 months ago. If today is July 22, that would be May 22. Write May 22 (if you dont have an Excel sheet and you are doing this by hand) and if you see a hit in the next 2 drawings (May 23), enter HIT. It not, write nothing. (This is NOT a draw to draw back test; for best results look at the next two drawings. This applies to all of my programs. )
 
Enter the next 2 drawings and see if you see a hit the next day on May 24, write HIT if you got a hit, nothing if you did not get a hit, and so forth.  
 
Continue in this manner until you come to the present.  
 
This may take you 30 minutes to an hour.
 
Then count the total number of drawings; it should be around 60 if you live in a 2 draw per day state since you went back 2 months.  (Give or take a few days. It all depends on how many days the month had; 30 or 31 days; 28 days if February.) Let us assume you used exactly 60 drawings.
 
If you got 23 hits, add two zeroes, (2300) and divide by 60. That would mean a 38.33% success rate. 
 
If you got 21 hits (2100) divide by 60 to get a 35% success rate.
 
If you got 19 hits (1900) divide by 60 to get a 31.67% success rate.
 
And so forth.
 
Now you have solid data telling you the hit rate of this program for your state based on actual results; not on anyone’s opinion.
 
 

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